Goldman Sachs Research has raised its copper price forecasts, arguing that the United States and China are now competing for the same refined metal. China is short of scrap and is drawing on its own inventories, while the US keeps importing and stockpiling copper ahead of possible tariffs. With mine supply also weaker than expected, the market outside the US is tightening faster than previously assumed.
The new forecasts
- End-2026 LME copper: $14,700/t, up from $13,735/t (forwards at the time of the report: about $14,437/t).
- 2027 average: $15,400/t, up from $13,800/t (forwards: about $14,405/t).
- Market balance outside the US: deficits of around 950kt in 2026 and 220kt in 2027, compared with 640kt and 170kt previously.
Show data
| Previous GS forecast | New GS forecast | Market forwards | |
|---|---|---|---|
| End-2026 | 13,735 $/t | 14,700 $/t | 14,437 $/t |
| 2027 average | 13,800 $/t | 15,400 $/t | 14,405 $/t |
Data: Goldman Sachs Research, 19 October 2026. Chart: World Investment Institute (WII).
Show data
| Previous estimate | New estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | −640 kt | −950 kt |
| 2027 | −170 kt | −220 kt |
Data: Goldman Sachs Research, 19 October 2026. Chart: World Investment Institute (WII).
1. China needs more refined copper
Chinese fabricators have traditionally relied on scrap for roughly 15% of copper semi-finished production, alongside cathode. This year, stricter VAT invoicing rules for scrap have reduced domestic scrap supply, so producers are buying more cathode instead – and China’s copper inventories are falling as a result. Goldman Sachs expects this substitution to continue well into next year. It adds about $945/t to the end-2026 forecast and about $2,985/t to the 2027 average, partly offset by smelters using more scrap.
2. US stockbuilding keeps competing for metal
The bank now assumes the US will build about 1Mt of excess copper inventory in 2026 (previously 900kt), with roughly 750kt already accumulated by the end of September. Tariffs on refined copper look unlikely before the US midterm elections, but the risk is seen rising afterwards, and the market already prices meaningful odds of a phased tariff from 2028. Goldman therefore assumes a further 400kt of US overbuild in 2027 (previously 380kt). Stronger US imports add around $250/t to the end-2026 forecast and around $385/t to the 2027 average.
3. Higher investor positioning
Investor interest in copper has grown with its links to AI, electrification, energy security and the broader hard-asset theme. Instead of assuming positioning returns to neutral, Goldman now expects it to stay near this year’s average of about 16% of open interest through 2027, adding around $775/t to the 2027 average forecast.
Main risks to the forecast
- Macro and positioning: a more hawkish Fed and higher yields – for example if energy prices push inflation up – or a broader sell-off in AI-linked equities could cut investor exposure. If positioning returned to neutral, the 2027 average would fall to around $14,600/t.
- US tariff policy: an early announcement of a phased tariff from 2028 would speed up US imports in 2027. If US overbuild rose to 800kt, the 2027 average would be around $16,350/t; if it fell to 200kt on lower tariff risk, the average would drop to around $14,900/t.
Trade idea
Goldman Sachs recommends a long position in December 2027 LME copper, as persistent tightness outside the US supports upside in forward prices. Key risks to the trade are weaker global growth, a reversal in investor positioning and a clear signal that refined copper tariffs will not be introduced, which would slow US imports and leave more metal available elsewhere.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, Commodities Research – Base Metals Analyst, “Copper: Raising Our Price Forecast on US-China Competition”, 19 October 2026 (L. Forcellese, D. Struyven, S. Dart).
Public coverage: GBM – Goldman Sachs revisa al alza su previsión sobre el precio del cobre